Preseason Football: Denver @ Houston: Observations

Please accept my sincerest apologies for being absent. Unless you'd like to field some questions on The Iliad, let's get to the first Bronco game of '08.

Quarterbacks:

Jay Cutler: 8-10-0, 60 yds, 1 att, 15 yds TD.
Patrick Ramsey: 8-13-2, 49 yds.
Darrell Hackney:5-8-0, 68 yds, 1 att, 16 yds.

Had Jay Cutler played the whole game, Denver victory. What do you want in a backup? A game manager or a guy who can make plays? Darrell Hackney is making a case for the latter. In the event Patrick Ramsey disappears from the roster, he might be going on a secret mission for the CIA; into Iran to overthrow the Ayatollah (who is always wide open).

Running Backs:

Andre Hall: 8 att, 45 yds, 5.6 avg., 1 rec, 0 yds
Anthony Alridge: 3 att, 20 yds, 6.7 avg, F (FR by Polumbus) 3 rec, 21 yds
Micheal Pittman: 6 att, 18 yds, 3 avg, 1 rec, 5 yds
Selvin Young: 4 att, 7 yds, 2 rec, 21 yds.

This would appear to be the committee. Their success is symbiotic with the offensive line which is brand new. Selvin Young and Andre Hall both ran behind 1st team offensive although I didn't notice if Hall was up against Houston's first-team defense the whole time. Ian predicted the emergence of Andre Hall [editors note: fist pump]. Anthony Alridge is super fast and Michael Pittman is tough inside and a capable receiver. Peyton Hillis needs to get well soon. Selvin Young needs to step up.

Wide Receivers & Tight Ends:

Tony Scheffler: 4 rec, 61 yds
Darrell Jackson: 3 rec, 18 yds
Eddie Royal: 2 rec, 13 yds
Nate Jackson: 1 rec, 11 yds
Samie Parker: 1 rec, 10 yds
Brandon Marshall: 2 rec, 8 yds
Daniel Graham: 1 rec, 7 yds

A wide receiver who didn't catch a pass, but made a big play was Cliff Russell who drew pass interference at the +3 giving the Broncos a scoring opportunity in the 4th quarter. He is still very fast as he was at Utah. Eddie Royal looked good. Tony Scheffler is a big part of the passing game as he has always proven to be. Darrell Jackson wasn't used effectively which is a coaching flaw, not his. Keary Colbert drew a pass interference penalty, too, but was otherwise ineffective. It's a good group of receivers who can give Jay Cutler a variety of players to whom to throw.

Offensive Line:

The starting line which played the first half has essentially two rookie tackles (i.e., the Ryans). Houston's upstart defensive lineman Mario Williams pushed Ryan Clady around which was a good experience for Clady. Ryan Harris drew four penalties only two of which he deserved. The illegal formation one could have as easily been given to the other Ryan or the guards. One holding call was a bogus flag thrown by a guy on the sideline who was seeing things. The false start and one holding were deserved. Not too bad; nothing that can't be fixed. In the event Montrae Holland returns and starts and Chris Kuper returns to right tackle, Ryan Harris is definitely the #6 offensive lineman. Casey Wiegmann did a good job as did Ben Hamilton. These guys need chemistry and that will only come with playing together. Stay tuned for what happens with Tom Nalen whose injuries are nagging him to the extent he is sidelined. Depth is good.

Special Teams:

Matt Prater was 3 of 4 on field goal attempts. His kickoffs mostly came down at the +5 to the goal line. Sam Paulescu's one punt was fielded 52 yards from the LOS and was returned. Brett Kern's one punt was fielded 42 yards from the line of scrimmage with more hang time and wasn't returned. Both held for extra points and field goal attempts. Eddie Royal had two kick off returns for 47 yds, Clifford Russell had one for 27, Anthony Aldridge one for 24 and Andre Hall one for 20. Glenn Martinez fielded one punt for two yards. The leading special teams tackler was Wesley Woodyard with three including the stop on Matt Turk who tried to advance a punt attempt for a first down and came up one yard short; ball over to Denver on downs-big play. Clifford Russell had two special teams tackles, and Michael Pittman forced a fumble which Cecil Sapp recovered.

Defense:

The only sack was shared by linebacker Jordan Beck and defensive tackle Steven Harris. There were no picks. Boss Bailey injured his bad ankle and his backup, Louis Green, injured his neck and suffered a concussion. The Broncos are extremely lucky to have Jamie Winborn who switched from DJ Williams backup to first team strong side linebacker and did a great job. That put Jordan Beck as DJ Williams backup where he played as weak side linebacker during the second half. Nate Webster had one tackle and two assists and a flying helmet. Niko Koutouvides and Spencer Larsen each had four assists. The most outstanding starter was Domonique Foxworth with three solo and two assists including a 5 yd tackle for loss. He is making his case. The defense was without DeWayne Robertson and Champ Bailey and very quickly lost Boss and Louis. The interior defensive line played well with Kenny Peterson logging two solos and Marcus Thomas had one. The defensive ends need to step up. I expect some shuffling/experimenting there. Ebenezer Ekuban had two solos and two assists and an offsides penalty.

The second teamers in the second half produced the leading tacklers:
Josh Barrett: 7 solo and 6 assists
Jordan Beck: 5 solo, 3 assists, 1/2 sack
Wesley Woodyard: 5 solo, 1 assist
LaMont Reid and Christian Morton had 4 solos each with the latter including a 7 yd sack.

Josh Barrett's detractors have described him as looking like Tarzan and playing like Jane. If so, Jane had a hearty meal of roast Texan Saturday night which was fresh-kill. He was in the box, often lining up over the TE in a 9 tech on the line of scrimmage. Having heard nothing about Wesley Woodyard from training camp reports, he suddenly exploded during the game making big plays on special teams and defense. On running plays these two totally attack the line of scrimmage. Josh Barrett came down the line of scrimmage several times and I didn't even notice him until he was the last guy to get up from the bottom of the pile. I had to pause the DVR and advance it one click at a time just to figure out where he came from. Wesley Woodyard and Josh Barrett also have great speed for guys their size. They seem to work well with Spencer Larsen and Jordan Beck. The linebacker depth and Jim Ryan's great coaching was very much in need and it all came through.

I expect to see more from the Broncos in next week's game with the Dallas Cowboys besides the vanilla O & D which they showed ... except not during practice ... with Dallas, that is.

CBS Channel 4 in Denver gets a C+/B- and an A for effort. The box guys need binoculars ... or bifocals. The director needs more monitors and helpers and to stop showing graphics instead of THE PLAY WE'RE MISSING. Also, how about more replays? But, hey, thanks for broadcasting the game. Do it again ... please?

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Preparing for the 2009 NFL Draft; pars septima:

Let's just go on ahead to potential fourth round players of possible interest to the Broncos in the 2009 NFL Draft:

Scott McKillop, MLB, Pitt, 6-1, 240, 151 tkl, 3 sk, 6 tfl, 7 pbu, 1 int in '07. If need exists at MLB in '09, he could be a good way to address it. McKillop's (and Pitt's) performance in the Big East will be worth following. Remember Pitt's upset of West Virginia in the "Backyard Brawl" in Morgantown in '07? Fourth Quarter, 4th & 3, Steve Slaton gets the ball and is tackled by McKillop ... ball goes over to Pitt on downs.

Devin Moore, RB, Wyoming, 5-9, 192, 198 att, 965 yds, 5 TD, 24 rec, 161 yds, 1 TD, 10 KOR, 271 yds, 1 TD in '07. If need is perceived at RB in '09, here is a worthy candidate especially if Denver continues in the direction of the tandem/RB by committee approach which seems so practical these days. Moore has the breakaway/long speed necessary to be a constant scoring threat. He could be a scary guy in a rotation and ST.

Londen Fryar, CB, Western Michigan, 5-11, 192, 63 tkl, 2.5 tfl, 16 pbu, 1 int in '07. Maybe it's time for the Broncos (Denver, that is) to start looking at CBs every season ... just in case ... the position starts to lose ... it's current strength and depth. Fryar is a good prospect who can certainly cover, a definite prerequisite for a Denver CB. He was 1st Team MAC after his Sophomore and Junior seasons. Pop Quiz: Who is he?

David Bruton, FS, Notre Dame, 6-2, 207, 85 tkl, 1 sk, 3.5 tfl, 2 pbu, 3 int in '07. In the event the Broncos haven't taken a FS by the fourth round, Bruton might still be there. Denver's lack of a FS, Josh Barrett having yet to prove himself, makes the position a priority in my opinion. It seems Denver's D may need two different kinds of Safeties: run-stopping Box/Monster/SS types who line up all over and can handle short zones and man on TE; and, Center-Fielder, deep third/cover 3, break on the ball guys who could handle some cover 1/cover zero. This guy might fit the latter job description.

Brian Mandeville, TE, Northeastern, 6-6, 255, 30 rec, 411 yds, 5 TD in '07. Personally, as already stated in "pars sexta", I much prefer Fresno State's Bear Pascoe to be Denver's next third TE. However, if for whatever reason Denver doesn't draft him, Mandeville might be a good third TE candidate with some future in the NFL. After all, in '07, the NY Giants drafted Kevin Boss, TE, Western Oregon in the fifth round and, when Jeremy Shockey was out for the year, Boss did nothing but make plays ... in the run to close the season as a Wild Card ... in the playoff road warrior run ... and in the Super Bowl. If a fifth rounder can do that ... well, I'm just sayin'.

Andy Kemp, G, Wisconsin, 6-5, 318. Not many stats for OL unless you want to consider the overall success of the whole offense and their level of competition. Without throwing more numbers out there, let's say the Badgers did well on offense in the Big Eleven. If the Broncos still needed a G in the fourth round, here's one who hasn't been arrested because he's been too busy attending class ... All-Academic Big-Ten ... at The University of Wisconsin in Madison. OK.

Darryl Richard, DT, Georgia Tech, 6-3, 290, 30 tkl, 4.5 sk, 7 tfl, 1 pbu in '07. I really think the Broncos need another rookie DT in '09 because, in my opinion, they need to start growing their own guys in a move away from so many UFAs. Think I mentioned one for second round consideration and two in the third. You may have noticed that 6-3, 290 guys with a motor are catching my eye. That type of DT would seem to fit well with Denver's new one-gap control D-Line concept. For that you need some 300 pound bowling balls to foul up blocking assignments. Seems like a lot of those in the '09 draft and it doesn't end with this round either. Oh, yeah, Darryl is another one of those academic awards guys, too.

Antonio Appleby, ILB, Virginia, 6-3, 250, 60 tkl, 2.5 sk, 2.5 tfl, 6 pbu in '07. We began this round with a MLB and just in case one is still needed, we end with one (that's right, kids, this round is almost over). Appleby's stats may seem a little misleading because he played ILB in a 50 D (3-4) and shared tackles with three other LBs. He does have the look of a quick, big-time thumper MLB which is what I think the Broncos need.

While the 2009 NFL Draft pool doesn't look as deep as '08 ... yet ... , I do like this possible fourth round: eight good looking football players at seven different positions. Assuming Denver has a fourth-round pick, there is much from which to choose on both sides of the ball.

Preparing for the '09 Draft; pars sexta:

Between the end of the '07 season and now, it's impressive what Shanahan and Co. have accomplished in terms of addressing the many personnel needs apparent at the end of last year. The Broncos now have a rebuilt OL, LB Corps, and more WRs and RBs than can make the roster. DL is thinner in experience than is optimal, but a cadre of young D-Linemen will tell us with their play this season whether and how much additional help is needed. Acquiring another DT via the '09 Draft may be advisable. MLB will be an adventure in '08 with the jury out on that position until the end of the season. At some point in the future, OLB will need to be addressed, but that, too, is unclear at this time. The obvious conundrum of the kickers (an ancient mystery cult) will prevail until consistency and stability is acheived which might not occur this season necessitating attention in the '09 Draft.

Fortunately '09 is a good year for PK/P and P/PK (I am obsessed with one player doing both) and most of those will be available in the final round or in CFA. A FS, a G and a TE seem, at the moment, to be the clearest positions of need in that order. The entire Safety group seems enigmatic due not only to the new D, but what roles the safeties will play in it. The current group seems dominated by Box/SS types which is why FS seems such a priority, presence of the unproven Josh Barrett notwithstanding. Given the age and injury history of three Denver OL, G needs to be addressed. At the moment I feel a promising third TE is needed and a good one may be available after the first two rounds.

We previously established these groupings of some players of interest:
Worth trading up:

• William Moore, FS, Missouri
• Duke Robinson, G, OU
• James Laurinaitis, MLB, the OSU
• Rey Maualuga, MLB, USC
• Brandon Spikes, MLB, Florida [*if he comes out]

First Rounders within anticipated reach:

• Courtney Greene, FS, Rutgers
• Arian Foster, RB, Tennessee
• Matt Shaughnessy, DE, Wisconsin
• Derek Pegues, FS, Mississippi State

Second Rounders within anticipated reach:

• Evander Hood, DT, Missouri
• Demetrius Byrd, WR, LSU
• Mitch Petrus, G, Arkansas
• Pannel Egboh, DE, Stanford
• CJ Spillman, FS, Marshall
• Josh Mauga, MLB, Nevada

Pushing our collective imaginations into the future (less than a year away, crybabies), let's develop some conceivable third-rounders:

Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss, 6-3, 298, 58 tkl, 3.5 sk, 10.5 tfl, 1 pbu, and 1 int in '07;
Curtis Taylor, FS, LSU, 6-3, 208, 54 tkl, 1 sk, 6 pbu and 3 int in '07;
Keegan Herring, RB, Arizona St., 5-10, 195, 154 att, 815 yds, 5 TD, 10 rec, 88 yds in '07 [*4.4 speed]
Alex Magee, DT, Purdue, 6-3, 295, 38 tkl, 4.5 tfl, 2 pbu in '07;
Bear Pascoe, TE, Fresno State, 6-5, 258, 45 rec, 553 yds, 4 TD in '07.

I hope that FS has been addressed by the time Denver gets to the third round (which I hope they have in '09). Peria Jerry is a good DT prospect, but I think a good one might be available later. The same could be said for Keegan Herring as well as Alex Magee. Let's watch out for "Bear" Pascoe this season. He was a QB in HS, has become a pretty good blocker (he plays full contact sports with cattle and horses when he isn't playing football) and is a terror on ST which is a definite prerequisite for a third TE. I like this guy a lot as a third TE for the Broncos in his rookie year with the future looking good for him in the NFL. I hope I can get to Fresno State's season opener at Rutgers. That way we could evaluate how well Courtney Greene covers Bear Pascoe, if he's called on to do so. That could be an interesting matchup.

For those who have been following "Sam's Mystery Tour" here, you may want to reference the first five "partes" for additional names and comparisons.

Here is what I would consider a reasonable first three rounds for the Broncos in the '09 NFL Draft:

• 1st Round- Courtney Greene, FS, Rutgers
• 2nd Round- Mitch Petrus, G, Arkansas
• 3rd Round- Bear Pascoe, TE, Fresno State

These conveniently satisfy my three targeted positions of need with players who seem to be able to help.

As previously stated, these projections are predicated on Denver selecting aproximately 25th [editor's note: Sam means 32nd], or so, and emphasis is currently being placed on '08 College Seniors. I don't know yet how many draft picks the Broncos will have in '09, or which, if any, will go to the Jets for DeWayne Robertson. Trading up is always a possibility with Mike Shanahan and will happen if: he feels he can afford whatever would be required to strike such a bargain; and, a "must have" player had been targeted and positioned for acquisition. Otherwise, the pool of players thus far presented has been intended to provide a range of possibilities in each round.

Preparing for the '09 Draft; pars quinta

Continuing with this very speculative exercise, let's briefly recap before moving on to rounds subsequent to the first. Definite anticipated needs in '09 will be FS, G and TE. The latest might be more of a depth issue which can be satisfied in a later round. Because of the fluid nature of the Draft itself, other positions like RB, MLB, OLB and DT should not be ignored in the event a highly regarded prospect is available.

Trading up is a possibility especially when an influx of Juniors pushes some highly regarded Seniors back in the first round and even into the second. It is a maneuver Mike Shanahan is not shy about using and when the roster becomes saturated with younger players, he won't hesitate to reduce his total number of picks in order to acquire certain players (as in '07).

Previously we listed some players of interest for the first round:

• William Moore, FS, Missouri - my favorite FS for whom Denver would need to trade up;
• Duke Robinson, G, OU - would fit in well next to Clady, but might require a move;
• Aaron Curry, OLB, Wake Forest - '08 developments could make him hard to pass up;
• Taylor Mays, FS, USC - a Junior for whom a big year will improve his draft position;
• Courtney Greene, FS, Rutgers - would be a solid pick at end of 1st/beginning 2nd.

Let's turn to the second round for some possibilities. Obviously, I think it's pretty likely the Broncos will choose a FS in the first round next year. Another definite need is G. I think a pretty good one might be there in the second round, Mitch Petrus from Arkansas. While not the devastatingly dominant prospect of Duke Robinson, I do like his verstility and athleticism and feel he would fit into Denver's OL perfectly.

Here are some others of interest who might be available to the Broncos in the second round of '09:

• Evander Hood, DT, Mizzou, 6-3, 295, 49 tkl, 5 sk, 3 tfl, 5 pbu in '07;
• Demetrius Byrd, WR, LSU, 6-1, 198, 35 rec, 621 yds, 7 TD in '07 [*4.4 speed];
• Anthony Parker, G, Tennessee, 6-2, 305;
• Ryan Purvis, TE, BC, 6-4, 258, 54 rec, 553 yds, 4 TD in '07;
• Darry Beckwith, ILB, LSU, 6-1, 235, 65 tkl, 1.5 sk, 5 tfl, 4 pbu, 1 int in '07;
• Pannel Egboh, DE, Stanford, 6-6, 274, 49 tkl, 6 sk, 7.5 tfl in '07;
• CJ Spillman, FS, Marshall, 6-0, 195, 131 tkl, 2.5 tfl, 6 pbu in '07 [*Marshall's leading tackler];
• Josh Mauga, MLB, Nevada, 6-2, 246, 82 tkl, 1 sk, 3 tfl, 3 pbu in '07 [*into game 7, out rest of season/WAC's leading tackler at that point]

Best case scenario for the first two rounds might be:

1st: William Moore, FS, Missouri; 2nd: Mitch Petrus G, Arkansas; OR
1st: Duke Robinson, G, OU; 2nd: Courtney Greene FS, Rutgers.

'08 developments on Denver's roster might alleviate the needs of FS and G, or other needs might supersede them. That's why other good prospects at different positions have been listed. Next time we'll see how far this prognostication can be pushed.

Preparing for the '09 Draft; pars quarta:

If you have read the first three parts, especially "pars tertia", we have attempted to establish a rational basis for discussing the '09 NFL Draft. Previously, a likely group of players of interest for the Broncos was presented drawn only from college Seniors in '08. What happens when Juniors come out? It changes much and reshuffles the overall ranking of players. Look what happened prior to the '08 Draft. A bunch of Juniors joined an already deep group. There were several highly regarded RBs among them. They (McFadden, Mendenhall, Stewart, Rice) crowded into the upper echelons of the pool and changed the order. Had that not happened, I doubt if the Broncos would have been able to pick either Ryans (Clady or Torain) with the picks they utilized.

What will happen in '09? Juniors will come out as they have regularly done. How many will impact the first round of the Draft? Hard to say because all of them won't come out, but a guess would be 8-10 first rounders. What this may do is shuffle Seniors of interest to the Broncos within their reach. It may also introduce a new player of interest for whom Denver might be willing to trade up. What Seniors of interest might be shuffled within reach? As indicated in "pars tertia", Duke Robinson, G, OU and Aaron Curry, OLB, Wake Forest might be considered, especially the former. Just as a Clady is seldom available, the same could be said for Duke and it might solidify Cutler's blind side for years to come. Another FS for whom the Broncos might trade up is William Moore, FS, Missouri, 6-1, 224, 117 tkl, 2 sk, 7 tfl, 6 pbu and 8 int in '07. Due to its depth, '08 was a good year to acquire many rookies, but the need for quantity vs. targeted quality will pass eventually.

Could there be Juniors of interest for whom Denver might trade up? I'm thinking Taylor Mays, FS, USC, 6-3, 225, 65 tkl, 6 pbu, 1 int in '07. I think, on paper anyway, that he makes me think of ... Josh Barrett? Which is another thing we won't know until the end of this year; how will Barrett do? A stellar season on his part could change the outlook on the '09 Draft. What about Brandon Spikes, ILB, FLA, 6-3, 242, 131 tkl, 1.5 sk, 14.5 tfl and 7 pbu in '07? Make anybody think ... Al Wilson? Again, we don't know how Niko Koutouvides and Spencer Larsen will do in '08. If MLB moves up as a priority, I would expect the Broncos to be interested in Spikes and Laurinaitis and Maualuga as well. On the other hand Niko and Spencer might do so well that MLB could be moved to the back burner for awhile. Shanahan will only contemplate trading up for a certain player who is so good at a certain needy position that sacrifices will be made in order to obtain him.

What if Barrett and Wesley Woodyard are doing well as FS and box S, and Koutouvides and Larsen are fine at MLB/ST? An influx of highly regarded Juniors might bump some Seniors from the first to the second round. The presence of Mays and others might push Courtney Greene (who might actually be every bit as good a FS) to the second round. It's a possible scenario. In it, Denver might be able to get Robinson and Greene thus filling a couple of definite needs with well-regarded prospects.

Preparing for the 2009 Draft; pars tertia:

Few will be more shocked than me if, as stated in "pars secunda", Courtney Greene does become the Broncos 1st round pick in 2009. Not to reiterate all the variables previously enumerated, it's a pure guess, but one with parameters. No one expects Denver to select a QB in the first. No one takes kickers/punters or FBs in the first round. Some areas of need have been addressed and some of the proposed solutions may not work. Injuries will occur to some college players and some Juniors will come out. It isn't a science and when the draft itself is in progress, it's very dynamic.

For those curious about what was taken into consideration beyond that which was stated in "pars secunda", here is more discussion. At this very distant point in time, how can we project who might be suitable at the approximate place the Broncos will pick in '09? Study is required at the newsstand and on the internet. Those who conduct this exercise annually know to question and challenge the sources. Don't be put off by format. In this endeavor there is no such thing as too much information. TV helps if you have the channels that show Spring scrimmages and preseason conference roundups (get out your branding iron). During the season WATCH as much college football as possible (within reason). Look for guys who stand out. I was regularly able to see Big East football games last year and one guy who stood out every time his team played was Danny Lansanah, MLB, UConn. He didn't get drafted, but was a CFA for the Packers. Broncos play the Pack in preseason. Boom-Danny Lansanah. Maybe he'll be good enough to back up Nick Barnett, and then ... who knows? By the way fans, try to look for good players who play well and give credit where credit is due. Don't hate on a guy just because he plays for a team you don't like. In view of Denver's recent unsatisfactory experience with certain players, I try to train my reading eye to catch certain words like ... "arrested".

Who are some players of interest for the Broncos who might be available in their window in the first round in '09?

• Duke Robinson, G, OU, 6-5, 338, All Big XII, consensus All-American.
• Aaron Curry, OLB, Wake, 6-2, 242, 99 tkl, 3 sk, 10.5 tfl, 4 pbu, 4 int in '07.
• Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Ok.St., 6-6, 260, 35 rec, 540 yds, 4 TD in '07.
• Brian Cushing, OLB, USC, 25 tkl, 1 sk, 1.5 tfl, 2 pbu in '07.
• Dannell Ellerbe, ILB, GA, 6-1, 234, 93 tkl, 4.5 sk, 7.5 tfl, 1 pbu, 1 int in '07.
• Louis Murphy, WR, FLA, 6-2, 202, 37 rec, 548 yds, 5 TD in '07. [*4.38 speed]
• Marcus Freeman, OLB, the OSU, 6-1, 238, 109 tkl, 1.5 sk, 8 tfl, 5 pbu in '07.
• Coutney Greene, FS, Rutgers, 6-1, 210, 101 tkl, 1 sk, 1.5 tfl, 4 pbu, 1 int in '07 [*Rutgers leading tackler]
• Matt Shaughnessy, DE, Wisc., 6-5 254, 60 tkl, 5 sk, 13 tfl, 3 pbu in '07.
• Derek Pegues, FS, Miss.St., 5-10, 196, 50 tkl, 2 tfl, 7 pbu, 5 int in '07 [*4.4 speed]
• Arian Foster, RB, Tenn., 6-1, 218, 245 att, 1192 yds, 12 TD, 39 rec, 340 yds, 2 TD in '07.

If Robinson, Curry or Pettigrew is available when the Broncos are up, I hope they can get one of them. Depending on which Juniors come out and whose "stock" has waxed or waned, one of these guys might slide to Denver. Imagine Robinson next to Clady. "Ryan. Take the outside rusher. I've got the inside covered." "You got it, Duke."

Great as that sounds, I don't see it happening.

Likewise with Curry. I put these guys in to show where the range might begin and end. Pettigrew might have a big senior year, but I think another TE or two just as good might be available later. Cushing, Ellerbe, Murphy and Freeman don't really address anticipated needs directly, but they are listed to show who might be available in the event "the guy" isn't there. Of course, my "the guy" is Courtney Greene because the FS seems to me the biggest defensive need in '09. Shaughnessy, Pegues and Foster are there in the event that Greene is gone. If FS was considered a big need, then Derek could become the new "the guy".

Players get injured. Juniors come out. Combine reshuffles the deck. Shanahan has moved up two of the last three drafts. Who knows? If Denver's roster becomes saturated with young talent, Mike might give away draft picks to move up and get a James Laurinaitis, Rey Maualuga or James Davis. However, a primary need isn't addressed until you get to Robinson. MLB and RB have received some attention in '08 and there is a whole season to go until those players prove themselves or not. If those positions stabilize then I'm sticking with this analysis of the first round ... for the time being.

Preparing for the 2009 Draft; pars secunda:

Having previously established (in my own tiny mind, that is) the definite needs for the Broncos in the 2009 draft (TE, G, FS), how might we expect the club to go about targeting and scouting the pool of college players at those positions? Denver currently employs almost a dozen college scouts. When you consider the coaching staff has three strength and conditioning coaches, eleven position coaches, two coordinators w/two assistants and an associate head coach, that's a lot of guys in the organization (not counting several others who are also involved) specializing in scouting and evaluating college talent. Compared to the number of people who openly express their opinions on the internet just prior to the draft it doesn't seem like many, but these Bronco employees do this every day for a living. For some football teams, eleven is larger than the whole coaching staff.
In addition to specific areas of need, some approach to the issues of draft position, need vs. talent at each choice, quality vs. quantity overall and available assets for maneuver is formulated. In '06, Mike Shanahan managed to trade up for Jay Cutler in the first, taking another offensive player (Tony Scheffler) in the second. Seven players were drafted in '06, mostly on offense. In '07 Shanahan once again traded up for Jarvis Moss in the first, picking another defensive player (Tim Crowder) in the second. Other moves were made which resulted in only four players being drafted in '07, three on defense. Mike picked a good year to go for volume drafting nine in the deep '08 pool of college football players. Five of them play offensive positions, and the first three guys picked were on O, too. Need at most positions caused Shanahan to stay pat, in spite of the many experts predicting trades and deals. It may be that '08 will be remembered for quantity and quality.

There is much current speculation concerning a projected record for the Broncos in '08. Estimates vary, but even the most pessimistic call for a winning season. Where will they pick? My guess is not before #20. So much can happen between now and April '09. We don't even know who will make the team yet in a year when almost all roster spots, including LS, are very hotly contested. Injuries and retirements will almost certainly occur, some sooner and others much later. Caveat emptor. With that in mind, revisit the previous paragraph. Did anyone notice a pattern? The trend would seem to indicate a defensive player in the first round of '09.

After inventorying the current roster in "pars prima", I'll predict the Broncos will draft a FS in the first round of the '09 NFL Draft. When observing the process, in the first round anyway, matching a need with the best player available seems to be the goal. Ryan Clady is a perfect combination of the two. There were so many needs in '08 that Shanahan had to use a trade, c.15(?) UFAs and 7 CFAs as well as the 9 draftees to bring in over 30 new faces. The first round could have been MLB, DT or S (as many had speculated-Kenny Phillips), but when Clady was there it seemed, in my opinion, a no brainer. There is still much residual grousing about not taking a big-name RB, but that may be more than water under the bridge as Denver has assembled an interesting and promising group.

The very best MLBs in '09 will be gone before #20 unless Shanahan can move way up. It is possible that salary cap considerations could produce a need at CB, but I hope not. When April (month of the boar?) rolls around again, there may be a lingering perceived need on the DL, but once again the best will be gone by the time Denver picks. Current trends would indicate a defensive player and the previous process of elimination is my way of boiling it down to FS.

Two previously undiscussed variables are Juniors coming out and the NFL Combine. Those just need to await analysis (ever notice the first four letters of that word?) until after they happen. Well, having predicted the first round will bring the Broncos a FS, I suppose you'd like me to make a prediction of exactly who it will be? OK. Courtney Greene, FS, Rutgers, 6'2" 210lb., leading tackler in '07 (101 TT, 1 SK, 4 PBU and 1 INT).

I challenge all other blogs, pundits and ... dudes. You heard it here (although I don't think Ian will agree) first.

Preparing for the 2009 NFL Draft; pars prima:

Step one is to determine need. Here we are prior to '08 training camp. What was the situation at the inception of the current year and what, if anything, has been done to address it? We inventory the current roster.


OFFENSE

QB: No need to address here; Cutler, Ramsey, Hackney going into camp; no new faces; How Cutler responds to medical treatment for diabetes will be a question;

RB: A moderate area of need; Subtract Travis Henry; add Torain, Alridge and Pittman; They go into camp w/Young, Bell, Hall and Sapp; The TC battle will be intense and "the pack" will require study to detect the emergence of one or most likely two to carry the load; RB is a possible area of interest in '09;

FB: Didn't really have a true FB (what is a true FB?); Add Hillis; If Shanahan has an offensive position called 20/FB, then Hillis, Sapp and Bell (who have played the spot) and Pittman might be candidates; This is an area which requires close scrutiny from this point until the end of the season;

TE: Not considered an area of great need in an offseason w/out many FAs and promising rookies; Scheffler and Graham make a strong pair with each trying to improve in opposite areas (blocking & receiving); Three will most likely be on the roster; Mustard tore a hamstring in spring practice and Jackson is returning from an injury; These enter training camp w/Brett Pierce; The lack of depth is a concern, but only if Graham or Scheffler can't go; Look for the acquisition (not inquisition) of a TE in '09;

WR: With the retirement of Rod Smith and the unhappiness of Javon Walker, this was an area of great need which Shanahan elected to address mostly through FAs (Jackson, Colbert, Parker, Russell and Shepherd); Two rookies were added (2nd round pick, Eddie Royal and CFA Lorne Sam); Martinez and McDaniel (PS) remain from last season; Brandons Stokley and Marshall return as the starters from '07; As of this post, eleven WRs are going to TC; Even after inevitable cuts, starting quality and depth look very good; With many new faces, this position will be observed closely to see how many and which are retained and how they do in '08 season;

OL: With season ending injuries to Hamilton and Nalen followed by a subpar season by Matt Lepsis (who retired), the OL was in need of repair if not a rebuild; Former Chief, Casey Wiegmann, was brought in to provide a vet at C in the event of the apotheosis of Tom Nalen, the modern Herakles; Likewise, a younger but experienced G, Dylan Gandy (Colts), was acquired just in case Ben Hamilton has not recovered from "spinal cord concussion" (which only full contact will reveal); It surprised most of us when Chris Myers was traded after filling in first at G, then C and playing well; There were some seviceable OL left from '07 (Holland, Kuper, Pears and Harris with PJ Alexander providing depth); The obvious, glaring need at LT was addressed w/1st round pick Ryan Clady (moving the Broncos closer to having an O w/just a few first names-Ryan, Brandon, Mike); The inevitable retirement of Tom Nalen and Wiegmann's longevity made the 4th round pick of C, Kory Lichtensteiger, make sense; Tyler Polumbus and Mitch Erikson were added as CFAs; Thirteen OL are going to TC; This unit will be watched to see if chemistry and interchangeability come quickly; The performance of this group, as a unit, is the key to the '08 offense; At this time G seems a definite '09 need;

DEFENSE

DE: Was not considered a critical area of need with Jarvis Moss and Tim Crowder entering their second season and Dumervil his third; The return of Ebenezer Ekuban from injury and the addition of three low profile young DEs (Birdine, Clemons and Carrington) as well as the return of John Engelberger, Kenny Peterson (also DT) and Josh Mallard (is he a DE or a DT?) make a group of 7-10 players considered for DE; Moss and Crowder were drafted to start and we will all be watching for that; Elvis Dumervil is a rare talent as a PRS, but will get beat up playing every down including run D/as a PRS he could be close to 20 sacks annually; all DL must rotate regularly;

DT: After the poor run D of '07, this position took a lot of heat and was in need of help; The only DT left from last year who truly looked promising was Marcus Thomas (and he almost got busted, whew!); Adding DeWayne Robertson from the Jets was seemingly masterful; Drafting Carlton Powell, in the fifth round, was clever and indicative of the direction DL play will go in '08; Josh Mallard (a DE at Georgia) was a PRS from the DT position in '07, but his status for '08 is a mystery/more on him in ST; For most of the '07 season, Alvin McKinley just didn't look good, but it may have been Bates' pseudo-defense (which is actually a bag of rune stones mixed with I Ching sticks and coins); Kenny Peterson and Nic Clemons may be considered as DTs with versatility being a marketable skill; Entering his second season is Thomas Harris (not to be confused with Marcus Thomas or Ryan Harris, who in turn, should not be confused with Ryans Clady and Torain), a teammate of Moss and Thomas at Florida who has his opportunity now; DeWayne has been guided carefully through mini-camps, but contact is on the way, and how his knee does during the season will be observed carefully with much rotation being necessary because his presence on the DL at least half of the time will be crucial; How Marcus Thomas plays in his second season, how Carlton Powell does as a rookie and whether or not someone can beat out Alvin Mckinley are issues which will be resolved;

LB: Since the end of his days as a Bronco, finding a replacement for Al Wilson (a hitting machine whose body just ran out of ammo) has been, perhaps, the most pressing need of the whole D; In '07 the talented DJ Williams was needed to play MLB, but now he is finally returning to WLB (aka "the wrath of the gods" to opposing offenses); At the close of '06, Nate Webster was tried at MLB, but it didn't go well, so in '07 he was given a shot at SLB (is the jury in yet?); Must be because the Broncos have reunited the Bailey Boys with Boss at SLB now; Nikos Koutouvides (Seahawks) and Spencer Larsen (All-PAC 10, 6th round pick) have been brought in to compete with Webster at MLB; Jordan Beck excelled as a Special Teams player and that would seem to be his best chance at a roster spot; Jamie Winborn is an extremely experienced and versatile LB who is a valuable player on ST; Louis Green has played mostly ST during his time with Denver; Rookie free agent Wesley Woodyard is listed as a LB, but it is possible that he will be groomed as the next box safety to replace John Lynch in a D that may be more split-six/4-4 than 4-3; Including Woodyard makes nine of which six may be kept; The biggest concern is at MLB with the questions being, can Nikos play the position well and can Spencer Larsen make the team even as a 1st & 2nd down guy?

CB: When neither Domonique Foxworth nor Karl Paymah had been traded prior to the draft, picking up Jack Williams in the 4th was a surprise; CB was not regarded as an area of need; With Denver's D inclined in the direction of a 4-4, five CBs may be needed for nickel/dime/cover 1 & zero vs. multiple WR sets; With seven headed for training camp, most expect five to make the roster (Bailey, Bly, Foxworth, Paymah and Williams); '08 will reveal this position as a bona fide strength or not;

S: The departure of Nick Ferguson and Curome Cox, the age of John Lynch and the questionable play of Hamza Abdullah made many feel that S was such a critical need that using a 1st round pick was contemplated; Two veterans with playoff experience (Marlon McCree and Marquand Manuel) were brought in to bolster the position; Rod Rogers remained from the '07 PS; Josh Barrett inexplicably fell to the Broncos in the seventh round; It remains to be seen if the Broncos want one box S/LB and one FS/center-fielder; As mentioned previously, Woodyard may be considered as a box S in the mould of John Lynch; Probably the biggest question surrounding the Safety position for the Broncos is, what kind of Ss in what kind of D do they want?

SPECIAL TEAMS

PK: Jason Elam's departure to Atlanta as an UFA came as a shock to many Bronco fans, but his inability to kickoff from the -30 beyond the +20 necessitated having the punter KO which doesn't need to be a big problem (his FG range seemed to be shrinking, too); This was obviously an area of significant need prior to the draft, but it usually isn't necessary to use the draft to address PK; Surprisingly, the Broncos only brought in one CFA, Garrett Hartley, to compete with Matt Prater who was with the team at the close of '07 Season; Expect the Broncos to keep a PK on the PS; How long it takes to gain stability at this position will determine if and how much need in '09;

P: Todd Sauerbrun's attempt to return to Denver was spoiled by unfortunate off-field behavior as well as some nightmarish punting/KO performances (especially at Chicago); This position was very unsettled at the close of the '07 season and was also an area of critical need; Again, the Broncos are entering TC with two Ps, Sam Paulescu (from the end of '07) and Brett Kern ('08 CFA); It wouldn't surprise to see the Broncos also carry a P on the PS; P/PK is a priority in '08 which may warrant draft picks in '09 as there are some interesting looking PK/P or P/PK guys who combine both both skills as well as sufficient size to be tacklers on P/KO;

LS: Each NFL team actually needs more than one long snapper and if you peruse the depth chart you will see the backup LS who is usually an OL sometimes a TE (e.g., Clark Harris, Packers); LS must be able to cover punts which means running and tackling; For years Mike Leach has done an excellent job as a LS for the Broncos; Word is Josh Mallard, a DL three years younger and 20lb. bigger than Leach, will try to displace him at the spot; I don't think we often see battles for roster spots extend to LS, but if Mallard can show consistent skill (absolutely necessary) with the ball, his ability to play DL may incline Mike Shanahan to prefer him over Leach who has pretty much been a specialist LS; With the limited number of roster spots and the long season (especially if playoffs are included), my own interest has been the possibility of one guy kicking and punting and have the LS just be one of your other guys on the roster, not necessarily a specialist;

ST PLAYERS: During the past two offseasons the Broncos have acquired about 24 players who look as if they may be good at ST (KO/KOR/P/PR) and 11 of those are '08 rookies; It is an opportunity for a physically talented and eager youngster to gain attention and make his mark and beat out a veteran for a backup spot at position; All ST situations will therefore have implications for O and D positions; Guys like Woodyard, Alridge, Barrett, Larsen and Sam don't need to be good enough to start if they can light it up on ST.

SUMMARY

Positions which will definitely need to be addressed in the '09 NFL Draft or FA/Trades are TE, OG and FS; Positions which will probably need to be addressed are RB and MLB; Positions which might need attention are WR, FB, OT, PK, P, DE, DT, OLB and SS depending on what happens in the meantime with Free Agency, injuries and retirements; It would be an understatement to say that the Broncos needed help everywhere after the '07 season; The OL was in complete disarray (you know, run disarray not datarray) and fortunately has been reassembled; WR and RB were total questionmarks, but now look deep and workable; DL and LB have been completely reorganized and have potential (a term repugnant to many coaches); Overall, Shanahan and Co. seem to have done an excellent job of acquiring personnel who may be able to help, given the limitations with which they had to work; From this point forward, it will be a matter of following the current roster keeping in mind that each move is indicative of what the new Bronco Coaching Staff has in mind for each position in their O, D & ST schemes.

Rookie Ryan Torain

A Rookie Running Back is always exciting to Bronco fans, especially when it's someone we actually use a draft pick on. Ryan Torain

A couple of articles/analysis have been posted in the last two days about Torain, the first is an Impact Analysis by at KFFL and the second was by the Denver Post in regards to the extra reps Andre Hall, Selvin Young and Ryan Torain will be receiving. Although Hall was noticeably absent from the Post's radar with their report.

My Early Prediction: Torain will do extremely well in preseason, maybe edging Hall out. However the Depth Chart at the beginning season will be the exact same as it is now.. Travis Henry, Selvin Young, Andre Hall and then Ryan Torain.